With his hallmark rally plans in tatters due to COVID and spoilers, I estimate his ultimate strategy to win re-election is to fall back on pure divisiveness, in a two-pronged approach:
External bellicosity: ramp up the discord with China. I see the forced shutdown of China's Houston consulate as part of this strategy. It may well be true that there espionage activities have emanated from there, but the White House deliberately chose to take action at this particular juncture. Trump may have hoped China's retaliation would go as far as closure of the US consulate in Honk Kong, but China's leaders are clearly going to strategise well above Trump's level
Internal friction: fan the flames of chaos by sending federal troops to US cities, ostensibly to quell violence. My friend Bill in Portland told me protesters there "made a mistake attacking the federal building" - that's what gave the White House an excuse to move in to Portland; what followed was not just good tabloid fodder, but also summary policing, including unidentifiable agents beating protestors and arresting them without charge. Four days ago, Trump intended to send them to Chicago too, but in the face of resistance from Chicago's mayor, it hasn't happened - yet. Several news services report it as being "unclear" what the federal officers would do there - the biggest shooting reported there was intergang violence at a funeral (no deaths), which is a State matter in the first instance.
But chaos is good for business, when you're someone like Trump. Expect more before November.
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